How the Elections Impact the Housing Market
Hey there, future homeowners and sellers! With the 2024 Presidential election just around the corner, you might be curious about the potential impact on the housing market. If you’re considering buying or selling a home during an election year, you’re not alone in wondering how this major event might affect your plans.
Let’s dive into what history tells us about elections and the real estate market. Spoiler alert: the impact is usually smaller than you might think. We’ll explore election year housing trends, focusing on home sales, prices, and mortgage rates.
The Impact of Elections on Home Sales
Typically, there’s a slight dip in home sales during November of election years. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains:
“Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.”
Why? Some folks get jittery about making big decisions during such a pivotal time. But here’s the good news for those considering buying or selling during elections: this slowdown is temporary.
Post-Election Housing Market Recovery
Data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that after nine of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased the following year. That’s a pretty solid track record for the election impact on real estate!
Election Years and Home Prices
Now, you might be wondering if home prices take a nosedive during election years. The short answer? Not really. Ryan Lundquist, a residential appraiser and housing analyst, puts it plainly:
“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”
Home prices are remarkably resilient, usually rising year-over-year, regardless of elections. NAR data shows that after seven of the last eight Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year. The one exception was during the housing market crash, which was far from a typical year.
Mortgage Rates During Election Years
Let’s talk about mortgage rates – a crucial factor for homebuyers during elections. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, Freddie Mac data shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in eight of them.
Even better news for those exploring 2024 election housing trends: most forecasts expect mortgage rates to ease slightly throughout the remainder of this year. If they’re right, 2024 will follow the trend of declining rates leading up to most previous elections, potentially making homebuying during elections more affordable.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2024
So, what’s the bottom line for the election year housing market? While Presidential elections do have some impact, it’s usually minor in the grand scheme of things. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, puts it:
“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”
For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t significantly disrupt their plans. The housing market tends to follow its own trends, regardless of who’s in the White House.
Navigating the 2024 Election Year Housing Market
While it’s natural to feel uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains resilient. Whether you’re looking to buy your dream home or sell your current one, don’t let election jitters hold you back. The market waits for no one!
Need help navigating the market during this election year? Let’s connect and make your housing dreams come to life.
